Can the Dallas Cowboys Avoid Trap Wild Card Loss vs. the Green Bay Packers?

For most of the NFL season, the Dallas Cowboys have cut their teeth absolutely crushing opponents deemed measurably inferior to them. Will that trend continue into 2024 NFL Wild Card Weekend when they host the surprisingly plucky Green Bay Packers?

• What: Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
• Date: Sunday, January 14, 2023
• Time: 4:30 p.m. eastern standard time
• Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas 
• Point Spread: Cowboys (-7.5), Packers (+7.5)

Voting in favor of the Cowboys is easier said than done. The 2024 NFL playoffs are a different animal than the regular season. “Any Given Sunday” comes into effect at a greater level. However, according to the latest NFL online betting odds, Dallas should not be treated much differently just because it’s the postseason:

Do not forget to keep double-checking these best NFL online betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments leading into opening kick-off on January 14.

The early returns on these Packers vs. Cowboys do not bode well for Green Bay. Many view them as sort of a faux playoff team—the byproduct of a rather weak NFC Wild Card race. 

Still, the Packers shouldn’t be written off. They finished the regular season just 9-8, but they also won six of their final eight games to punch their ticket into the playoffs. And while this stretch didn’t include taking down any world-beaters, Green Bay did beat the Los Angeles Chargers before they lost Justin Herbert as well as the NFC North champion Detroit Lions and the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. That’s a rock-solid collection of victories. The question is: How much does the Packers’ scorching-hot streak to close the regular season matter entering their NFL Wild Card showdown against the Cowboys?

Do the Green Bay Packers Stand Any Chance of Upsetting the Dallas Cowboys?

Inherent skeptics will point to the Cowboys’ recently murky NFL playoff history as evidence that the Packers have a legitimate chance. Does that underestimate this version of Dallas? Who’s to say, really? 

Sure, it might be easy to make memes about the modern-era Cowboys. But given how dominant they have been for most of this season, it’s much harder to build a case for the Packers pulling off an upset. 

Make no mistake, this is a weird thing to say about a Green Bay team with plenty of positive statistical indicators. They may have finished the regular season just one game over .500, but they also ranked in the top 12 of both points scored and points allowed. That’s not easy to do. It’s also not something that happens by chance.

For this matchup specifically, though, the Packers’ approach feels too conservative. They don’t force many turnovers on defense. And while quarterback Jordan Love does a good job protecting the ball on offense—he has an interception rate south of 2 percent—he has been inconsistent enough that Green Bay’s attack often looks stagnant. 

Dallas’ defense, meanwhile, seems like it’s built to shut down everything the Cheeseheads do. They are aggressive without being reckless. Opponents turn the ball over on 14.6 percent of their drives—the eighth-highest mark in the league—yet the Cowboys still have the means to get at rival quarterbacks and limit shots downfield. 

Short of an epic collapse from Dallas’ NFL-best offense, we don’t see a feasible path to victory for Green Bay. The Cowboys have lost one game against an opponent one game over .500 or worse all season, and it hasn’t happened since Week 3. We don’t believe that throughline will disappear now.

OSB Prediction: Dallas Cowboys (-370)

Should We Brace for the Cowboys to Deliver Another Blowout Victory?

Relative to some of Dallas’ previous NFL point spread betting odds, their line against Green Bay looks downright restrained:

• Dallas Cowboys, -7.5 (-104)
• Green Bay Packers, +7.5 (-116)

Bettors have so far flocked toward the Packers point spread. That is… a curious decision. Indeed, the NFL playoffs have a way of inviting slower-paced games and, by extension, smaller scoring margins. But the Cowboys are a plus-11.4 points per game on the year—an absurd mark. 

That number only climbs when you factor in their victories. Dallas’ average margin of victory is over 21 points on the year. And only two of their victories at home have come by single digits. We might be oversimplifying this, but based off everything we’ve seen from Dak Prescott and company, the Cowboys should be able to win this one by 10-plus points.

OSB Prediction: Dallas Cowboys, -7.5 (-104)

Will Dallas’ Offense Slow Down at All Against Green Bay?

Not surprisingly, the Cowboys vs. Packers over/under betting line is the highest of 2024 NFL Wild Card Weekend: 

• Over 50.5 (-115)
• Under 50.5 (-105)

Paint us shocked that the market favors the “over” without favoring the Cowboys point spread. That doesn’t really make sense to us. 

Green Bay has shown, on occasion, that they can pile on the points. They eclipsed 30 points in two of their final three games. But they also only soared past the 30-point market three times for the entire year.

This isn’t to say that concerns us in the context of the “over.” Dallas has scored 30 or more points in 10 games this season while hitting the 40-point marker five times. Truth be told, the Cowboys can nudge this game towards the over without much help from the Packers offense.

OSB Prediction: Over 50.5 (-115)

Take a look at this list of the top online sportsbooks so you can find one that works for all of your 2024 NFL betting: